June 13, 2013 Leave a Comment
June 5, 2013 Leave a Comment
Topics for Wed., 6/05/13 2:30 PM - DX, EUR, MXN, JPY Good Afternoon, We'd like to review some ideas today in the Dollar Index, Eurocurrency, Mexican Peso and Japanese Yen for traders. Dollar Index - 82.40-82.50 is support, and today's low so far. Horizontal chart support - 82.00-82.50 , and more importantly, trendline support in the 82.40 area. We want to be long here AS LONG AS this market closes above the trendline, which is 82.40 today. Long Term, As long as DX holds in in this area, we expect the market to re-test and eventually break resistance in the 84.50 area and to trade to 90.00 . We expect that move to be fueled by European financial troubles and rising MM yields in the US against flat MM yields in the EU. Eurocurrency - the inverse of the Dollar Index, this chart is tinkering with levels above the downtrendline line from the 1.3715 highs, but into horizontal resistance from the 1.3075 to 1.3175 area. We like distributing shorts here and scaling up OR down with time and price action as long as the 1.3193 area holds. Note the .382 Fibonacci of the whole decline from 1.3715 to 1.2755 comes in at 1.3119 and today's high so far is 1.3118. Mexican Peso - Continue to wait for the 800-805 area to establish new shorts . It may or may not occur, but represents a low-risk entry in the very early stages of what appears to be a possible longer-term bear move. Japanese Yen - Long Term and Intermediate Term trends are down, while the Short Term trends are now clearly up. For Traders, short term resistance is in 10220 and 10700-10750 areas. Support is on the downtrend line and against the lows around 9700-9735. For Long Term Traders and hedgers, the 10900 to 11050 area represents an excellent area to establish shorts.
Always Use reasonable risk parameters and risk capital for trading. These trading ideas represent our opinions of the market and what we are looking to do for clients. Thanks for your interest! regards, George L Stein VP Trading & Technology, The BlackBay Group http://theblackbaygroup.com/ 1-800-992-4630 (c) 847-924-0397 firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com
May 29, 2013 Leave a Comment
Canadian Dollar - Established downtrend on the cusp of accelerating. Long-Term chart generates Intermediate-Term targets at the 9036 or 8638 level Possibilities for a run at the 7222 area over the next year. Mexican Peso - Note on the 25-year long term chart that this is an irregularly decaying currency, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Daily chart shows a recent failure to take out the previous int. term high, market now trading below 11 1/2 month trendline around 800-802. We like shorts established 800-804, looking for an eventual break of the '08 depression low around 630. Japanese Yen - This currency has fallen very far in a short period of time, and we believe the JPY/USD pair is in bounce mode. We are looking for levels that a bounce could extend to. Traders should note resistance levels at par ( small ), 10250-10350, 10700-10800, and 10900-11000. Position traders should seriously consider portfolio shorts at the 10900 area to keep, the 10905 location is the .382 Fibonacci level.
May 22, 2013 Leave a Comment
AUD – Australian Dollar Futures. The decline in AUD is well established now, This
decline is approaching some important milestones The 9370 area and the 8730 area as
derived from the weekly charts and symmetrical relationships within the previous
triangle formation. S-T Resistance is 9870-9900 and then 9960-10000.
Dollar Index – This market is at an important decision point. Long Term, DX is
breaking out of a ‘triangle formation, but has yet to reclaim the uptrend line from
the March, 2011 DX lows. Expect volatility, between 8300-8500 due to this interplay,
but with an ultimate resolution higher to the 9000 area and higher
EUR – converse of the Dollar Index, the EUR downtrend is well established. S_T
Support is in the 12700-12770 area and resistance is around today’s highs near
13000. Expect a S_T run towards the lows at 12750, and more volatility in the
12700-13000 range with an ultimate resolution towards 12000 and then par.